This article seeks to explain the challenge between Iran and United States, independent of the cause or time of occurrence, by providing a model to choose the optimal behavior. Presenting the model, the perspective theory is used to describe the action of the parties, and the space that governs this challenge; and the optimal answer is expressed with the Game Theory Approach. Prospect theory, which is used to improve the human behavioral pattern against the expectation value theory, due to the modified assumptions that the traditional approaches have them, makes a usable model which guarantee the output more reliable. The main question that this article seeks to answer is: what is the optimal pattern of Iran's behavior in the operating environment with U.S. conflict? In this regard, after explaining how Iran and the United States act during the game, it is demonstrated that the selected games of Iran and the United States - to obtain the least cost and inflict the most damage - are compatible with the Chicken game and the Prisoner's Dilemma respectively; So it was assumed that Iran chooses the Chicken game and the United States chooses Prisoner's Dilemma; and Finally, the US-Iran rocket conflict will be described base on these two games.
· نوربخش، س. ؛ غفوری، س. ، ملکی، ع. (۱۳۹۴)، به کارگیری نظریه بازی ها در تحلیل منازعه ج. ا. ایران و آمریکا با محوریت برنامه هسته‌ای ایران، مجله راهبرد، سال بیست و چهارم بهار 1394 شماره 74 ،صص: 89-132.
· نهاوندیان، م. ؛ لطفی، م.(۱۳۹۲)، نظریه بازیها و تحریم اقتصادی ایران (ارائهی مدل مفهومی) مطالعات دفاعی استراتژیک، تابستان 1392 - شماره 5، صص:39-68.
گلدانی، مهدی (۱۳۹۷)، الگویی برای تبیین بهینه رفتار اقتصادی کشورها در تقابلها نامتقارن قدرت با استفاده از نظریه بازیها و نظریه چشمانداز، دومین همایش ملی اقتصاد دفاع دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، زمستان 97.
ب) منابع انگلیسی
Arreguin-Toft, I. )2001( “How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict.” International Security 26(1): 93-128.
Bennett P.(1995), Modelling Decisions in International Relations: Game Theory and Beyond, Mershon International Studies Review, Vol. 39, No. 1 (Apr., 1995), pp. 19-52
Berejikian, J.( 2002b), “Model Building with Prospect Theory: A Cognitive Approach to International Relations Political Psychology.” Political Psychology 23(4): 759-786.
Health, Chip, Richard P. Larrick, and George Wu.(1999). “Goals as Reference Points.” Cognitive Psychology 38(1): 79-109.
Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” Econometrica 47(2): 263-272.
Kanniainen Vesa, Poutvaara Panu,(2018) The Economics of Peace and War: An Overview CESifo Economic Studies, Volume 64, Issue 4, December 2018, 545–554
Koopman, Cheryl, Shiraev, Eric, McDermott, Rose, Jervis, Robert, Snyder, JackBeliefs about international security and change in 1992 among Russian and American national security elites. Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology. 1998; 4 (1) : 35-57
Lindley, Dan. 2003. “Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War.” Paper Presented at the American Political Science Association Conference, Philadelphia, PA.
McDermott, Rose. 2001. Risk-Taking in International Politics: Prospect Theory in American Foreign Policy. (Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press).
Nalebuff, Barry. 1991. “Rational Deterrence in an Imperfect World.” World Politics 43(3): 313-335.
O’Neill, Barry. 2001. “Risk Aversion in International Relations Theory.” International Studies Quarterly 45(4): 617-640.
Park, Sang Hyun. 2004, "Cognitive Theory of War: Why Do Weak States Choose War against the Stronger States?. "Ph.D. diss., University of Tennessee, 2004.
Poundstone, W. (1992) Prisoner's Dilemma Doubleday, NY.
Rapoport, Arotol and Albert M. Chammah. 1965. Prisoner’s Dilemma: A Study in Conflict and Cooperation. (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press).
Rapoport, Arotol. 1967. “A Note on the ‘Index of Cooperation’ for Prisoner’s Dilemma.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 11(1): 101-103.
olomon, Jay (26 June 2015). "Shift Clouds Iran Nuclear Deal". Wall Street Journal: A9.
Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman. 1981. “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.” Science 211: 453-458.
Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman. 1992. “Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative
Vertzberger, Yaacov Y. I. 1998. Risk Taking and Decisionmaking: Foreign Military Intervention Decisions. (Stanford: Stanford University Press). Representation of Uncertainty.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5(4): 297-323.
goldani, M. (2020). Describing the Optimal Behavior of Iran and The United States Conflict by means of Game Theory. Strategic Management Studies of National Defence Studies, 9(37), 114-142.
MLA
mahdi goldani. "Describing the Optimal Behavior of Iran and The United States Conflict by means of Game Theory". Strategic Management Studies of National Defence Studies, 9, 37, 2020, 114-142.
HARVARD
goldani, M. (2020). 'Describing the Optimal Behavior of Iran and The United States Conflict by means of Game Theory', Strategic Management Studies of National Defence Studies, 9(37), pp. 114-142.
VANCOUVER
goldani, M. Describing the Optimal Behavior of Iran and The United States Conflict by means of Game Theory. Strategic Management Studies of National Defence Studies, 2020; 9(37): 114-142.
