Classifying Priorities in Scanning National Strategic Environment Using Open-source Intelligence

Authors

1 Oil Ministry

2 phd graduate

3 ma

Abstract

Identifying strategic priorities of the social, technological, economical, ecological, and political environment at the national level could improve the design of the scanning process. furthermore, open-source intelligence along with other sources helps in better detecting weak signals. Using a mixed-method, this article prioritizes the strategic issues in all five aspects of the national environment and ranks the open-source intelligence to improve the accuracy and efficiency of environmental scanning. To this end, extraction of the strategic environment issues has been done and 16 experts evaluated the content validity. Then, data has been gathered from 34 questionnaires from strategic management experts. Data analysis has been done using the Friedman ranking test in SPSS software. The results priorities 43 strategic issues and ranked 13 sources of open intelligence. This research answers some practical questions in the process of scanning the strategic environment at the national level.

Keywords


  • الف. فارسی

    • پورصادق، ناصر؛ کشتکار، مهران (1395)، محیط‌شناسی در مدیریت استراتژیک، تهران، انتشارات آذرین‌مهر.
    • سرمد، زهره؛ بازرگان، عباس و حجازی، الهه (1394)، روش‌های تحقیق در علوم رفتاری، تهران، نشر آگه.
    • مبینی دهکردی، علی (1390)، معرفی طرح‌ها و مدل‌ها در روش تحقیق آمیخته، راهبرد، 20 (60)، 234-217.
    • مبینی دهکردی، علی؛ حیدری، حامد (1393)، مبانی دانش محیط‌شناسی راهبردی: مفاهیم، تئوری‌ها، فنون و کاربردها، تهران، انتشارات صفار.

     

    ب. انگلیسی

    • Aguilar, F. J. (1967). Scanning the business environment. Macmillan.
    • Albright, K. S. (2004). Environmental scanning: radar for success. Information Management, 38(3), 38.
    • Alperen, M. J. (2017), Foundations of Homeland Security: Law and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA.
    • Ansoff, H. I. (1975). Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. California Management Review, 18(2), 21-33.
    • Babatunde, B. O., & Adebisi, A. O. (2012). Strategic environmental scanning and organization performance in a competitive business environment. Economic Insights-Trends & Challenges, 64(1), 24-34.
    • Dator, J. (2005). Universities without “quality” and quality without “universities”. On the Horizon, 13(4), 199-215.
    • Habegger, B. (2009). Horizon scanning in government. Zurich: Centre for Security Studies. Retrieved June, 17, 2009.
    • Hiltunen, E. (2008). Good sources of weak signals: a global study of where futurists look for weak signals. Journal of Futures Studies, 12(4), 21-44.
    • House of Commons Science and Technology Committee (2014), Government horizon scanning, London: The Stationery Office Limited
    • James R. Clapper (2014), The national intelligence strategy of the United States of America, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Washington, DC.
    • Kucharavy, D., & De Guio, R. (2011). Application of S-shaped curves. Procedia Engineering, 9, 559-572.
    • Lesca, N. (Ed.). (2013). Environmental scanning and sustainable development. John Wiley & Sons.
    • Loveridge, D. (2002). The Steepv acronym and process-a clarification. Ideas in Progress, 29.
    • McDowell, D. (2008). Strategic intelligence: a handbook for practitioners, managers, and users. Scarecrow Press.
    • Mendonça, S., Cardoso, G., & Caraça, J. (2012). The strategic strength of weak signal analysis. Futures, 44(3), 218-228.
    • Molitor, G. T. (2003). Molitor forecasting model: Key dimensions for plotting the'patterns of change'. Journal of Future Studies, 8(1), 61-72.
    • Mushrush, B. D. (2015). Improved Intelligence Warning in an Age of Complexity. US Army School for Advanced Military Studies Fort Leavenworth United States.
    • Quiggin, T. (2007). Seeing the Invisible: National Security Intelligence in an Uncertain Age. World Scientific.
    • Richelson, J. T. (2015). The US intelligence community. Westview Press.
    • Rohrbeck, R., & Bade, M. (2012, June). Environmental scanning, futures research, strategic foresight and organizational future orientation: a review, integration, and future research directions. In ISPIM Annual Conference.
    • Rossel, P. (2012). Early detection, warnings, weak signals and seeds of change: A turbulent domain of futures studies. Futures, 44(3), 229-239.
    • Stottlemyre, S. A. (2015). HUMINT, OSINT, or something new? Defining crowdsourced intelligence. International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 28(3), 578-589.
    • Trottier, D. (2015). Open source intelligence, social media and law enforcement: Visions, constraints and critiques. European Journal of Cultural Studies, 18(4-5), 530-547.
    • Van Rij, V. (2010). Joint horizon scanning: identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge. Science and Public Policy, 37(1), 7-18.
    • Vecchiato, R. (2012). Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(3), 436-447.

    Wilson, F. R., Pan, W., & Schumsky, D. A. (2012). Recalculation of the critical values for Lawshe’s content validity ratio. Measurement and Evaluation in Counseling and Development, 45(3), 197-210.